Connolly: Cedric Mullins value just soared thanks to one lucrative deal in New York

There’s been a dizzying amount of money thrown around so far this MLB offseason, but one move may affect the Baltimore Orioles’ future more than any other.

Not the six-year $162 million deal given to lefty Carlos Rodón, who would have been the best overall fit for an Orioles team that needs an ace, and who, ultimately, ended up with the division rival New York Yankees.

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Not the three years and $63 million awarded to right-hander Chris Bassitt, who seemed like the most reasonable free-agent fit for the Orioles; he, too, is now in the American League East with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Not the one for lefty Sean Manaea, who signed with the San Francisco Giants for two years and $25 million.

No, the contract that will have the most impact on the Orioles went to a guy the club was not pursuing at all this offseason: Outfielder Brandon Nimmo, who inked an eight-year, $162 million deal to stay with the New York Mets, the only club he has known. That’s the same amount of guaranteed dough as Rodón, for two years longer.

Nimmo is a 29-year-old, left-handed-hitting center fielder and leadoff man with a good bat and a strong defensive reputation.

Sound familiar?

The Orioles have a guy like that. Cedric Mullins is only 28. He has more power than Nimmo and is a better defender and base stealer but doesn’t have the same on-base skills.

He’s also entering his first year of arbitration; Mullins won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 season, when he will be 31 (Nimmo turns 30 this March).

Nimmo is probably the best comp available for Mullins given that they are nearly the same age, play the same position, both hit leadoff, et cetera.

And that’s terrible news for the Orioles. Because an argument can be made that Mullins is better than Nimmo and should cost more to retain — especially with basic inflation over the next three years, assuming Mullins continues the path he has forged in the last two seasons.

Nimmo has a career 17.2 WAR in 608 games spanning parts of seven seasons. Mullins has a 9.2 WAR in 430 games spanning parts of five seasons. Mullins’ 9.5 WAR in the past two seasons (he had negatives in his first two years) outpaces Nimmo’s 8.7 since the 2021 season began. Mullins also has shown more durability. Nimmo has played more than 140 games once, last year’s career-high 151. Mullins played in 156 last year and 159 in 2021.

I took an informal poll of big-league scouts recently (none involved with the Orioles or Mets): Money being equal, I asked, who would you rather have, Nimmo or Mullins? Two said Nimmo, two said Mullins and two said they’d flip a coin (but Mullins if forced).

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One was adamant Nimmo has a distinct edge based on a better floor, more career consistency and more sustainable skills such as a high on-base percentage. Another said it was a no-brainer for Mullins because, “he’s a better center fielder, steals bases and has more power.”

That scout said all Mullins needs to do is stay healthy and maintain his numbers from 2022 and he’ll get Nimmo money or more as a free agent for 2026, because teams will pay for a consistent power-speed combo.

Frankly, Mullins is making his case right now as one of the best power-speed guys in baseball.

There are only seven hitters in the majors with 15 homers and 15 stolen bases in each of the past two seasons: Trea Turner, Ronald Acuña Jr., José Ramírez, Marcus Semien, Randy Arozarena, Adolis García and Mullins.

Of that group, Mullins is the only one who has had a 30-30 season since 2021 began and one of only three to have a 30-30 in their career, joining Ramírez in 2018 and Acuña in 2019. Mullins has had two consecutive 15-30 seasons. Of the above group, only Turner and Arozarena have done that once in the past two seasons.

Mullins’ 64 stolen bases lead the group, and his 46 homers are fifth. He’s the third youngest (behind Acuña, 25, and Arozarena, 27) and one of only three (Arozarena and García) who is not a multi-millionaire.

That will change this winter for Mullins, who made $716,500 last year but will get a substantial boost in his first year of arbitration. MLB Trade Rumors predicts he’ll make approximately $4.4 million in 2023.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias said during the Winter Meetings earlier this month that he’s not focused on his arbitration-eligible players yet; it’s expected that will be more of a concentration in January.

Elias has not used arbitration discussions as a launching pad for a legitimate long-term extension in the past. And, given the uncertainty surrounding the 2023 payroll, he may not this year, either. Furthermore, even after Mullins’ breakout 2021 season which marked the first 30-30 season in club history, the Orioles broached no extension talks. There seemingly was a wait-and-see approach to make sure the performance wasn’t fluky. And though he didn’t repeat, Mullins still performed solidly and further entrenched his spot as a top center fielder.

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Extremely loyal, Mullins repeatedly has stressed what it means to him to be an Oriole and to win for the only organization that believed him in 2015, when he was selected out of Campbell University. The 2022 season, he said, was the most fun he’s had in baseball because his team was winning, even though his numbers took a step backward from his All-Star 2021 campaign.

He’d surely be up for an extension. Mullins just got married, and that’s traditionally a good time to talk about security with a young player. He has three more seasons with a team that should be on the rise. And no player wants to leave his original organization, all things being equal.

Most important, the Orioles want Mullins around to patrol center field. According to a source with knowledge of the situation, the club hasn’t shopped Mullins this winter and appears highly unlikely to trade him because he embodies the team’s current blueprint for success: High-quality and high-character homegrown players.

There also isn’t anyone in the system who can play as strong of a center field as Mullins, and that’s key to Elias’ and manager Brandon Hyde’s up-the-middle defensive strategy.

Certainly, the Orioles could get a significant return for Mullins in the trade market. And, if the Orioles are still in rebuilding mode, perhaps a 28-year-old isn’t a perfect fit for the future of the organization.

Yet Nimmo’s deal proves just how valuable Mullins could be and how much it would cost to try to find a similar player on the open market.

That deal, however, could be viewed as a starting point for what Mullins may cost in 2026. And that should make the Orioles think more seriously about locking him up now when he still is three years from free agency.

It’s a risk, of course. Probably the biggest criticism of Mullins is that he is a late bloomer whose outstanding 2021 came out of nowhere. The pedigree isn’t there, so maybe the consistency won’t be. But Mullins held his own this past season after his breakout 2021, and talent evaluators expect his watermark to be somewhere in between his last two campaigns.

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That would mean a huge payday.

One thing we know about Mullins is that he bets on himself. He always has. No scholarship out of high school. Drafted in the 13th round in college. Sent all the way back to Double A in 2019. Had his best season after learning he had Crohn’s disease. He hears what he can’t do. Then he does it.

So don’t expect Mullins to be bothered by what his value may be. Or to have a rough season during a walk year. This guy will keep working and keep playing and, consequently, keep pinging the cash register.

The Orioles need to decide whether to pay a lot now, a lot more later, or just let him walk away eventually. They have three years to ultimately make that call.

But the price just went up this winter.

(Photo: Mary Altaffer / Associated Press)

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